Tuesday, June 1, 2010

BP is super evil. Time to buy some shares

So basically the whole world thinks that BP is evil, or at the very least grossly incompetent. Obviously the BOP exploding and the resultant pouring of oil into the Gulf of Mexico is a tragedy and one that we obviously need to avoid in the future, but in terms of the vast number of operations that BP and the other oil producing companies are engaged in it seems that they do a better job far more times than they don't. That being said, the monumental cost of a failure on this scale means that this type of failure has already occurred once too often.

But I digress, the point I wanted to make here is that purely from a trading point of view, it is time to jump on BP. There is no doubt that the share price has been hammered losing roughly one third of its value since the disaster struck. While the DOW and S&P 500 have also dropped these drops have been in the order of 10%.

The way I see this playing out is that the share price will likely drop a little bit more as the various options fail a little more until some point probably a week or two before the expected arrival of the relief well that is currently being drilled.

At the current price the company is undervalued and this will only become more apparent as the price drops further. BP is a massively successfully global company that specializes in a commodity that the entire world can't get enough of. The share price will recover and the market will forget the disaster in time (even if the general public do not). And whoever managed to get in on them now will be holding a steady profit.

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